- Smart Healthcare, Wednesday 2 September 2009 10.08 BST
A new report from Kable, publisher of SmartHealthcare.com, shows that while there are major uncertainties over the direction of the programme, work on implementing the Care Record Service (CRS) is likely to proceed, fuelling a growth in the market for software systems. This will combine with an increase in remote and mobile working to support continued investment.
UK healthcare market profile 2013-14 forecasts that annual spending in the sector will rise from £2.34bn in 2007-08 to £3.48bn in 2013-14, representing a compound annual growth of 6.9%.
The growth is predicted to come largely from software revenues, associated with moves to begin using the central electronic patient record developed under NPfIT. Although the CRS has been delayed by two years, its development has now reached a tipping point and should prompt the signing of a large number of contracts over the next two years.
These will cover clinical, logistical and managerial applications, ranging from patient administration systems to more complex operations such as asset and contract management, risk assessment, remote telemetry and recording details to comply with the Mental Health Act. The market will also open up as NHS trusts are given the freedom to choose alternatives to the core systems – Cerner Millennium and iSoft's Lorenzo – previously specified within NpfIT.
These factors should combine to boost spending in the field from £86.5m in 2007-08 to £364.4m in 2013-14.
The other main driving forces are the shift to telecare, which is encouraging the adoption of the relevant technology, and the growing use of mobility enablers such as smart cards, RFID tags, PDAs and BlackBerrys.
Among the other significant factors at work are the increasing use of outsourcing and shared services, and a move away from in-house software development towards turnkey applications from specialist providers. It is also significant that most NHS organisations do not have a specific budget for IT but tend to draw funds as needed from central budgets. This leads to a less settled investment approach and makes it harder to develop robust relationships with suppliers.
Report author Victor Almeida, a senior analyst at Kable, commented: "The health industry has the largest budget in the UK public sector and its modernisation is a paradigm not only for the rest of the UK government, but to health systems all across the world. For example, critics and supporters of 'universal healthcare' in the US often refer to the achievements and faults of the NHS in order to corroborate their arguments.
"Everyone in UK public sector and the rest of the world the has something to learn from the NHS."
* Read an extract from the report on the future of the National Programme for IT
